The RICS UK Residential Market Survey for June 2016 indicates uncertainty fuelled via the EU referendum has triggered reasonable drop in activity from the housing sector.
New buyer enquiries have declined significantly throughout the UK in June, with 36% more chartered surveyors nationally reporting an autumn in interest – the cheapest reading since mid-2008.? The South of your UK has long been most difficult hit, with anecdotal evidence suggesting your EU result plus the tax changes, which took effect at the start of April, as with the relation to sentiment.
There became a further fall while in the availability of properties coming you can buy through the UK in June, excepting Northern Ireland. This highlights the continued challenge presented to the market industry with the not enough stock. 45% more chartered surveyors saw a fall in new instructions in June coming from a net balance of -31% in May.
This may be the steepest fall on record and extends a trend which is into position since 2014.
The market has seen further decline in sales this month which has a third successive monthly drop in activity. Contributors expect this trend to stay with 26% more respondents anticipating a further drop in sales round the UK above the next 3 months. It is the most negative reading for near term expectations since 1998.
House price growth saw reverse mortgage June and although price is still rising, they generally do so for a more moderate pace. 16% more respondents reported having seen prices rise instead of fall through the UK.
London remains the only region where respondents are seeing prices fall (-46% net balance) on this largely being concentrated during the central zones. That said, near term price expectations have reached negative territory through the whole in the UK with 27% more respondents round the UK expecting to see prices fall rather than rise over the next ninety days.
Looking further ahead across the next Calendar year, sales expectations have turned negative at last in four years with 12% more contributors expecting transactions to fall instead of rise.
Significantly, within the next Year the dip in prices is only most likely to persist in the uk and East Anglia (net balances of -39% and -34% respectively) and long run, expense is still most likely to rise, albeit rather less in the past anticipated, having a cumulative increase of 14% projected for the 5yrs.
Rent expectations covering the same time horizon remain more resilient and are still broadly consistent with a slight increase of just over 20%.Big events including elections typically do unsettle markets it’s the same hardly surprising that your EU referendum has become of the downturn in activity. However, even without the build up to the vote and subsequent decision in preference to Brexit, it’s quite possible which the housing numbers might have slowed throughout the second quarter of the season, following the rush in a great many areas from buy to allow investors to secure purchases ahead of the tax changes.
RICS data does report that the dip in activity will persist in the coming months nonetheless the critical influence looking further ahead is how the economy performs inside the wake within the uncertainty triggered because of the vote to depart.
Respondents towards the survey are understandably cautious but rates of interest heading lower and sterling significantly so, it remains seen perhaps the concerns regarding a possible stalling in corporate investment and recruitment are justified.
