After a rally from mid-August gave way to another sell-off through early September, emerging-market investors could be forgiven to get careful of new signs that calm is returning.
But with the dollar struggling to make headway and equity valuations during the developing economies at the lowest this season, the scene can be set for more gains. So say commentators from JPMorgan Asset Management to Wells Fargo Asset Management. You will find optimism the world’s biggest economies will reach a truce on trade tariffs following breakthrough reached between US, Canada and Mexico on Sunday, potentially removing most significant risks to your sector.
“It does look far more attractive at the present time to be getting the dip we percieve in emerging-market assets since they are significantly better priced compared to they were within the heat of the moment at the outset of all seasons,” said Marc Ostwald, the London-based global strategist at ADM Investor Services.
For sure, you will find headwinds, including rising US rates and political troubles in countries from Brazil to Turkey and Nigeria. Not to mention the Italian fiscal turmoil that’s currently sapping risk appetite, sending a gauge of emerging-market currencies lower on Tuesday.
But listed below are three charts suggesting some comforting trends taking hold since the third quarter drew towards a close:
At the start of the year, most investors had bet over a weakening dollar. For extension, they expected local-currency bonds of emerging markets to outperform foreign-currency bonds. Because dollar’s strength since April surprised them, their ask the bonds fell flat and dollar bonds organized better in the rout.
In September, investors were looking for a second surprise. As you move the dollar showed signs and symptoms of weakness, and local currencies rebounded, the relative performance within the bond market didn’t change, and foreign-currency debt rose to your 16-month high against local counterparts.
“The underperformance in municipality bonds this season is to the strong dollar backdrop markets faced during few quarters,” said Diana Amoa, a London-based money manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. “We see a peak in dollar strength materializing within the coming months as other central banks come to normalize rates and this must be supportive for local bonds.”
The emerging-market equity rally in 2017 was driven by information-technology shares, breaking with the past when stocks of commodity producers had been the most crucial driver. Nonetheless the third quarter reinforced the power of commodities to emerging-market outlook.
Now could possibly more nuanced idea of the dynamics of equity returns: it is just China and India which have rendered rapid strides in technology. For many non-Asian markets, commodity exports remain solution to equity performance.
Commodity stocks outperformed technology stocks by 7.5% inside 11 weeks to September.
“Higher oil prices as well as general strength during the commodity sector will continue to be the main objective for your quarter,” said Naeem Aslam, the London-based chief market analyst at TF Global Markets UK.?”We also think that emerging markets don’t have any immediate threat providing the Fed doesn’t show their overly hawkish hand as well as the trade war remains in balance.”
Derivative traders are cutting their bets on emerging-market currency volatility. A JPMorgan Chase & Co index on expected currency swings fell more than 17% last month, by far the most because the Taper Tantrum in 2013. Given that the sell-off this holiday season originated from currencies, this turnaround signals a brighter outlook for riskier assets as a whole.
“Many central banks cleared up currency weakness by combating the weakness with rate hikes as an alternative to leaning in to the weakness with rate cuts,” said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Wells Fargo Asset Management. “That should help investors get at ease with the idea that emerging market countries aren’t intending to try and competitively devalue their currencies.”
? 2018 Bloomberg L.P
